IGAD Weather Forecast for October - December Across Greater Horn of Africa

IGAD Weather Forecast for October – December Across Greater Horn of Africa

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) have released their seasonal forecast for October to December 2025, indicating below-normal rainfall and warmer-than-usual conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.

The rainfall outlook highlights a reduction in rainfall expected with regions like Southern and Central Tanzania, Southern Ethiopia and Eastern Kenya expected to receive below-average rainfall and drier conditions.

Some western parts of the region are expected to receive rainfall above the normal. Regions like Northern Rwanda and Somalia, northeastern and southwestern Uganda, and southeastern South Sudan are expected to receive increased precipitation. Rainfall exceeding 300 mm is expected in Northwestern Tanzania, western Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi as well as Southern Uganda. These areas should be prepared for potential flooding.

Other regions, including southwestern Ethiopia, northwestern Kenya, central to northern Uganda, western Burundi, and most of Rwanda, show equal chances of receiving above or below-normal rainfall, indicating uncertainty in precipitation trends.

Timing of the Rainfall

An early to normal onset of precipitation is expected across many western regions of the Greater Horn of Africa; western Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, and western and central Tanzania, Southern South Sudan, and South Western Ethiopia. This will provide a relief to farmers who rely on seasonal rains.

The seasonal forecast highlights the need for early preparation, especially in regions expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions, to mitigate potential impacts on food security and livelihoods.

Environment Cabinet Secretary Deborah Barasa stated that the government would support climate resilience efforts. She shared, “Bridging the early warning gap requires shared knowledge, timely information, and a united regional approach. Kenya remains committed to supporting regional frameworks that strengthen climate resilience across our communities,”